ES Morning Update March 19th 2024

The market had a nice move up yesterday from the low on Friday to make what was most likely a Tiny Wave 1 inside Small Wave 5 up. Then there was a pullback in the second half of the day, which was probably a Tiny Wave 2 down. Today will be hard to figure as the market is waiting on the FOMC meeting tomorrow.

I see two possible paths, which are that this Tiny Wave 2 subdivides into an ABC whereas the A leg was the first pullback from the 5240 high on the ES yesterday. From that low we could rally up for a B wave today (early?) and pullback for the C wave into the close. That leaves Tiny Wave 3 up to start tomorrow, which we should subdivide into 5 smaller waves too. I’d guess that the wave 1 up (Extra Tiny Wave) would happen early in the day Wednesday and then the wave 2 would be a small pullback into the meeting.

Then a strong wave 3 up (Extra Tiny Wave) follows, which is inside Tiny Wave 3, inside Small Wave 5. That should be the most powerful wave of course, and it should be from something said by the Fed that the market takes a positive.  Basically a lot of chop until after the FOMC where the big squeeze should happen and top into this Friday, which ideally would be at the FET of 5334… but again, if it’s close and it happens on Friday, I’ll be looking for a short.

The other thing that could happen is that we just do a one wave move down for Tiny Wave 2, which will still setup Wednesday to start Tiny Wave 3 up, and the first subwave (of 5) should happen in the morning on Wednesday and then the subwave 2 in front of the meeting.

Doesn’t matter which way it plays out as the end result should be a strong rally up after the meeting tomorrow. I lean toward just one wave down for Tiny Wave 2, meaning it doesn’t subdivide into an ABC, but I really am not concerned about which way it unfolds as everything tells me we are close to a strong breakout rally into this Friday (possibly Monday) to hit the upside target and setup the market for a nice, much needed correction of 5-10%.

Have a blessed day.