ES Morning Update February 1st 2024

Well, I got tricked yesterday as I thought we wouldn’t see this kind of drop until after we went higher first. Instead we dropped hard Wednesday and failed to get the rally first. What this tells me is that once this pullback is finished, probably a day or so, (maybe yesterday as we are already getting oversold on the 6hr chart), they will go back up and make a new higher high.

If we bottom today I’ll look for a rally up into next Monday and then another pullback. How much I don’t know as we first need to see what the rally will be. That pullback could last until the 10th possibly, and then another strong rally into OPEX. I’m very bearish on the big picture but short term I still think the top isn’t yet in.

I could be dead wrong but I really think this top is going to take longer to play out then what I original thought. Now yesterdays drop was clearly a wave 3 or C of some degree. If it’s a wave 3 then we will have a bounce for wave 4 today (already in play) and 5 down to a lower low for that final wave 5… or if it was a C wave then it ended already and we’ll have a higher low.

Meaning the C wave ended it and the first rally up today will be a wave 1, and the pullback afterwards will be a wave 2… which should naturally will be a higher low. Then a wave 3 up should follow on Friday, then 4 and 5 on Monday. That should end that series of waves. I don’t know if that will be a higher low or lower low then the all time high. If a lower high (which is what I lean toward) then a pullback into maybe the 10th should be next. After that another strong rally into OPEX, which again could be a higher high or lower high. All this is just a rough guess of course. Let’s get the rally first before we guess about the rest.

Have a blessed day.